Abstract
<jats:p>Climate variability poses substantial challenges to agricultural production, particularly in developing countries, including Nigeria, where small-scale farming predominates. This study examines the influence of climate change on soybean production in Nigeria from 1961 to 2022 using autoregressive distributed lag, error correction, and vector autoregressive models. The findings indicate that climate change and land use exert positive short-run and long-run effects on soybean yields. Diagnostic tests confirmed the stability of the model, with no evidence of heteroscedasticity or autocorrelation, and normally distributed residuals. The CUSUM and CUSUM of Squares tests further validated parameter stability. Irrigation, employed as a proxy for agronomic practices, revealed limited coverage and modest infrastructure development, while transportation infrastructure remained relatively stable. Crop insurance was found to be insufficient, reflecting restricted access to climate finance. Although soybean production was not a direct contributor to clean energy supply, it indirectly supported emission stabilization. Soybean is a vital legume for food security, animal feed, and soil fertility enhancement. The study recommends a comprehensive strategy that integrates climate-resilient practices, improved agronomic techniques, sustainable water management, expanded crop insurance, and promotion of clean energy. Embedding these measures into agricultural policy will strengthen food security, resilience, and sustainable development in Nigeria.</jats:p>