Abstract
<jats:p>Objective — to quantitatively assess the spatio-temporal dynamics of vegetation under industrial pressure in Makat District. June NDVI was computed from satellite imagery (2000, 2010, 2015, 2021, 2024) and compared with Kazhydromet (RSE) records of June mean temperature and precipitation. The district-level mean NDVI was ~0.14 in 2000, declined to ≈0.10–0.09 during 2010–2021, and recovered to ≈0.21 in 2024. Spatial analysis revealed persistent low-NDVI patches around production sites, pipelines and associated infrastructure: these areas exhibit elevated shares of low (C1–C2) and medium classes, whereas the high-vegetation class (C5) contracted to minima in dry years (2010–2021) and, although it increased in 2024, remained comparatively low within the main industrial belts. NDVI relates positively to June precipitation and negatively to higher temperatures, indicating water limitation as the primary driver in this arid setting; at the same time, industrial loads (dust-gas emissions, contamination by petroleum products and saline waters, soil salinization/structure degradation, flare combustion) intensify local weakening of vegetation. The results demonstrate consistently depressed NDVI in zones of technogenic influence irrespective of the climatic background and delineate vulnerable landscape units. Overall, the study highlights the combined effects of climate and industrial pressure and supports the use of a June-standardized NDVI as an applied tool for ecosystem-condition monitoring in the region.</jats:p>