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Abstract

<jats:p>The main results of a comprehensive analysis of the large-scale atmospheric circulation in the upper, middle, and lower troposphere of the Northern Hemisphere for the summer of 2024 are presented. Spatial features of long-term trends in the distribution of air temperature and precipitation are examined. Particular attention is paid to heat waves in Russia in the summer of 2024 and to the associated economic losses. The skill scores of the consensus forecast for the territory of Northern Eurasia for the summer of 2024 are assessed in terms of reproducing the temperature and precipitation regime. An analysis of the multi-model forecast of the World Meteorological Organization and the NEACC consensus forecast of average seasonal anomalies of air temperature and precipitation showed an advantage of the consensus forecast based on three Russian models (SLAV, MGO, and INM) with equal weighting factors.</jats:p>

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Keywords

forecast summer 2024 temperature precipitation

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