Abstract
<jats:p>Purpose. The study is aimed at substantiating a conceptual model of geological risk in the assessment of coal mining spoil heaps. The main objective is to establish the patterns of formation of geological uncertainty in technogenic formations and to identify the relationships between genetic, spatial, temporal, and information factors that determine the reliability of predicting their composition and properties. Methodology. The research is based on a systems approach to the analysis of technogenic geological objects. A genetic principle of interpreting massif heterogeneity is applied, involving the sequential consideration of endogenous, technogenic, and supergene processes of formation. A comparative analysis of natural and technogenic deposits is combined with a synthesis of contemporary scientific studies in geological-economic assessment and risk analysis. Conceptual modeling of the structure of geological uncertainty is performed. Cause-and-effect analysis using Ishikawa diagrams, together with a multilevel approach, is applied to identify and systematize risk factors and to describe the internal structure of technogenic formations. Results. It is established that the geological risk of spoil heap assessment is formed as an integrated result of the interaction of four groups of factors: genetic, spatial, temporal, and information. The genetic transformation of the system “endogenous structure → technogenic reorganization → supergene evolution” determines the sources of heterogeneity, spatial factors define its hierarchical organization, temporal factors control the evolutionary changes in massif properties, and information factors determine the adequacy of their representation in geological models. The combination of these factors forms a multilevel and dynamic structure of geological uncertainty that cannot be adequately described within traditional approaches used for natural deposits. Scientific novelty. For the first time, a conceptual model of geological risk in spoil heap assessment is substantiated as a function of the interaction of genetic, spatial, temporal, and information factors Rg=f(G,S,T,I), reflecting the systemic and evolutionary nature of uncertainty in technogenic geological objects. A structural scheme of geological risk factors is developed, enabling processes of different genesis and scales to be integrated into a unified analytical system. Practical significance. The proposed approach can be used to improve the reliability of geological and economic assessment of spoil heaps, optimize sampling and modeling programs, and justify strategies for the rational utilization of technogenic resources. The obtained results provide a basis for implementing dynamic monitoring systems for technogenic formations and for incorporating geological uncertainty into planning their development.</jats:p>