Abstract
<jats:p>The article presents a comprehensive technical and economic analysis of the national strategies to secure supply of the critical mineral raw materials, i.e. lithium, cobalt, and the rare earth elements, in conditions of growing structural deficit, price volatility, and geopolitical fragmentation of the global supply chains. The hypothesis assumes that the current national diversification strategies fail to reduce the geographic concentration of mining and refining operations, thus forming a ‘diversification paradox’. The study aims to quantitatively assess the efficiency of strategic instruments employed by the United States, the European Union, and China in the context of balancing the supply and demand for lithium, cobalt, and rare earth elements for the period up to 2035. The methodological framework combines a comparative institutional analysis of the regulatory documents, calculation of the Herfindahl–Hirschman Index (HHI), regression analysis of the relationship between the investment activity and the price dynamics, and scenario modelling based on the USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025, IEA Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025, and McKinsey Global Materials Perspective 2025 data for 2018–2024. The empirical base covers production indicators from 15 countries and strategy-related documents from three jurisdictions. It was established that the Herfindahl–Hirschman Index stands at 5,880 for cobalt and at 4,990 for the rare earth elements, which is treated as a sign of high market concentration. The share of the three largest refining countries increased from 82% to 86% during 2020–2024. The projected lithium shortage by 2035 is estimated at 38% of the total demand. The investment gap in mining of the critical minerals through 2040 reaches $2 trillion. The theoretical significance of the research lies in justifying the ‘diversification paradox’ concept, while the practical value is defined by applicability of the quantitative estimates for adjusting the national mineral resource strategies.</jats:p>