Abstract
<jats:p>Women’s educational attainment has usually been associated with higher childlessness, but the negative educational gradient in fertility seems to have shifted in some countries. One reason for this finding could be the increasing marginalisation of lower educated women in the partnering market. We investigate whether women with lower educational qualifications are less likely to have a first child due to changes in the educational gradient in union formation. We apply logistic regressions to recent European Social Survey data from 28 countries, grouped into four regions, that include women born between 1955 and 1985. For western, southern and eastern Europe, we find a negative association between education and fertility, which narrows at older ages in the western region. The association is positive but insignificant in the Nordic region. We also find an emergingpositive educational gradient in union formation for western and southern Europe that partly mediates the association between education and fertility.</jats:p>