Abstract
<jats:p>The article substantiates demographic and labour atrophy of human potential erosion and an independent security threat to Ukraine’s national resilience under conditions of prolonged polycrisis and full-scale war. It is demonstrated that demographic losses, labour market distortions, behavioural and cognitive inertia of the population, and the deterioration of biomedical characteristics are not isolated socio-economic risks but rather form a cumulative atrophic contour that undermines the resilience of socio-economic systems and limits the development of the state. The essence of human potential erosion is revealed as a multidimensional process integrating demographic, labour, economic, behavioural-cognitive, biomedical, spatial, and institutional components of the weakening of national resilience. It has been proven that under conditions of prolonged uncertainty demographic and labour atrophy acquire self-sustaining properties, transforming from a derivative consequence of crisis shocks into a factor of their reproduction. An indicative model for assessing demographic and labour atrophy in the security dimension is proposed using the method of integral indicators, which involves calculation of component, partial, and generalised integral atrophy indices across seven key dimensions. A system of statistical indicators is formed, and their weighting coefficients are substantiated using the logical design method. A scale for interpreting the levels of demographic and labour atrophy (from low to critical), a monitoring framework, and differentiated managerial implications depending on the depth of atrophic processes are developed. It is demonstrated that ignoring demographic and labour atrophy within the system of strategic planning creates the risk of forming a ‘recovery without people’ scenario and leads to long-term constraints on national development. The results obtained may be used to strengthen the analytical support of national security policy, spatial recovery strategies, and human potential governance in Ukraine.</jats:p>